The Social Security Administration is set to announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on October 15, depending on whether the federal government shutdown ends. For millions of retirees, this update determines how much their monthly checks will rise next year.
According to early projections from The Senior Citizens League, a leading nonpartisan advocacy group, Social Security benefits may increase by about 2.7% in 2026. While this percentage applies nationwide, the dollar value of the COLA increase will vary depending on where retirees live.
Why Some States Will See Higher Social Security COLA Increases
The Social Security COLA Increase is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the third quarter of each year, covering July through September. If consumer prices rise, benefits increase to help seniors keep up with inflation.
For example, when the CPI rose 2.5% in 2024, retirees received a 2.5% COLA increase in 2025. This calculation means that a retiree receiving $1,750 per month in 2024 would see their benefit rise to $1,793.70 in 2025.
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Because the percentage is applied to each recipient’s benefit, retirees with larger monthly payments get bigger COLA increases in dollars. That’s why residents in states with higher average Social Security benefits will receive the most significant pay raises next year.
The 10 States With the Highest Median Social Security Benefits
Data from the Social Security Administration’s 2025 Annual Statistical Supplement shows the 10 states with the highest median benefits for retired workers. These states are expected to see the largest Social Security COLA Increases in 2026.
| State | Median Retired-Worker Benefit |
|---|---|
| New Jersey | $2,172 |
| Connecticut | $2,159 |
| Delaware | $2,139 |
| New Hampshire | $2,121 |
| Maryland | $2,084 |
| Michigan | $2,067 |
| Washington | $2,061 |
| Minnesota | $2,053 |
| Massachusetts | $2,021 |
| Indiana | $2,016 |
These states have higher median incomes overall, which directly impacts lifetime earnings — one of the main factors used to calculate Social Security benefits.
Why Some States Don’t Follow the Pattern
Michigan and Indiana stand out because, despite their relatively lower state income levels, retirees there receive higher-than-expected Social Security benefits. This could be because many retirees move to these states after working in higher-paying regions, or because they delay claiming Social Security, which increases their monthly payment.
In contrast, states like California and Washington, D.C. have high average incomes but lower median Social Security benefits. Many retirees relocate from these high-cost areas after retiring, reducing the number of high-benefit recipients remaining in those regions.
What the 2026 COLA Means for Seniors
If the Social Security COLA Increase lands between 2.7% and 2.8%, as current estimates suggest, the average retired worker could see an additional $54 per month added to their benefits.
This would be slightly higher than the 2.5% increase applied in 2025 but far below the record adjustments of recent years, such as 5.9% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023, which came in response to surging inflation.
While these increases help offset higher living costs, many retirees worry that inflation and rising expenses could still outpace the COLA. A recent survey by the Nationwide Retirement Institute found that half of retirees fear tariffs could raise prices further, affecting their buying power.
Medicare Costs May Offset the 2026 COLA
Rising Medicare Part B premiums may reduce the benefit of the 2026 Social Security COLA Increase. Estimates suggest the standard premium could rise by about $21.50 per month, reaching $206.50. Part D prescription drug plans could also increase by up to $50 per month.
These deductions could eat into the COLA gains for many retirees, especially those living on fixed incomes.
How Inflation Still Impacts Retirees
Even though inflation has cooled since the pandemic highs, seniors continue to feel the effects at the grocery store and in housing costs. Since COLA adjustments are applied once a year, they often lag behind real-time inflation changes.
Experts say retirees can reduce the impact by planning their spending carefully and consulting with a financial advisor to better manage benefits and savings.
The Social Security COLA Increase for 2026 is expected to be around 2.7%, giving most retirees a modest boost in monthly income. Those living in higher-income states will see larger increases in dollar terms, but rising Medicare premiums and persistent inflation may offset some of the gains.
For millions of seniors, knowing how the COLA increase affects their benefits is key to planning for the year ahead.